More surveyors said UK house prices were rising in the three months to September than those reporting falling property values.

The proportion turned positive for the first time for two years, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ (Rics) survey found.

The change was driven by price rises in the South East of England and shortages of homes for sale.

The government’s own figures showed a 1.4% rise in prices from June to July.

“Although it is clear that house prices are now rising, it continues to be a lack of supply that is underpinning the recovery in most parts of the country,” said Rics spokesman Jeremy Leaf.

He said that more sellers were considering putting their properties on the market but this could “present a challenge” to rising house prices when interest rates increased.

‘More sales’

The National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) said that first-time buyers had returned to the market, followed by home movers.

Buyers are chasing homes that they thought they would have time to consider at a gentler pace Surveyor Robert Green

Families wishing to upgrade or young couples needing a bigger house to raise a family were active in the market again, according to NAEA president Gary Smith.

This was backed up by the Rics survey which showed that more surveyors were reporting enquiries from new buyers.

The actual number of sales was also up - with surveyors selling an average of 17 each in the last three months. This was the most since May 2008 but still a third down on the position at the beginning of 2008.

Sales were highest per surveyor in the East Midlands and West Midlands, with the lowest number of sales per surveyor reported in London.

‘False dawn’

Surveyors revealed a general view that demand for homes was not matched by the number coming onto the market, and this lack of supply was the reason prices were rising.

ANNUAL HOUSE PRICE FALLS Scotland: 4.4% (average home cost £159,725) Wales: 6.4% (average home cost £150,753) England: 8.4% (average home cost £202,154) Northern Ireland: 22.2% (average home cost £174,834) Source: DCLG figures for July

Robert Green, of John D Wood and Co in Oxford, said: “The low volume of stock is keeping the market buoyant and buyers are chasing homes that they thought they would have time to consider at a gentler pace.

Separate figures released by the Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG) showed that UK house prices were 1.4% higher in July than in June, but still 8.3% lower than in July 2008.

The quarter-on-quarter change, a less volatile measure than monthly changes, showed that prices rose by 2.1% - a shift from falling values of 2.8% seen in the quarter to the end of April. The average UK home cost £196,338 by July.

Year-on-year prices fell by 4.4% in Scotland in July, they were down 6.4% in Wales, fell 8.4% in England, and were down 22.2% in Northern Ireland.

In the English regions, the annual fall in prices ranged from a 6.8% fall in Yorkshire and the Humber to a 9.6% drop in the East of England.

Earlier in the week, the economic forecasting group The Ernst & Young Item Club said that the recent rise in UK house prices was a “false dawn”.

Repossessions drop

Separately, the Financial Services Authority (FSA) published figures confirming that there was a fall in repossessions in the second quarter of the year.

The number of loans subject to a repossession dropped by 9% from the first three months of the year to 13,610.

In August, the Council of Mortgage Lenders reported a 10% fall over the same period.

The FSA said the number of new mortgage accounts moving into arrears, defined as being behind by at least 1.5% or more of the mortgage loan, dropped for the second quarter in a row, down by 14% from the first quarter to 51,000 new arrears cases.

However this did not stop the total stock of arrears cases continuing to grow, albeit more slowly.

This total now stands at 403,000, 1% higher than in the first three months of the year, though still 30% higher than a year ago.

The FSA commented that low interest rates were slowing down the slide of more borrowers into arrears, but people already behind with their payments were still struggling to pay off their backlog of mortgage repayments.

“Publicity around the government schemes and greater lender forbearance is encouraging borrowers to contact their lender earlier,” said the Building Societies Association.

“The BSA research shows that where this happens the overwhelming majority of borrowers are able to keep their homes and successfully overcome their arrears problems.”

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8256653.stm

MORE than three quarters of consumers are confident that UK house prices won’t fall any further this year.

That is the key finding of the latest consumer confidence survey from Rightnove and is in sharp contrast to the same survey carried out in January, which revealed that around two-thirds of people felt that house prices would be lower in the following 12 months.

Rightmove, the leading property website, say they feel that such a u-turn in public sentiment provides a strong indication that confidence is returning within the UK housing market.

A series of recent reports have been equally optimistic as to the market’s recovery, including Rightmove’s own House Price Index which shows an increase in average prices so far this year, and the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors readjusting its price forecasts.

Rightmove point out that their survey provides evidence that such positivity is being reflected among the public at large, with the survey measuring a large sample size of respondents across all adult age groups and regions of the UK.

Commercial director Miles Shipside said: “With increasingly positive public sentiment supported by encouraging recent market reports, the UK property industry is now seeing a virtuous circle of confidence building upon confidence.

“This vote of confidence has positive and negative connotations. The sentiment of future buyers is a pre-cursor to a speedier recovery in depressed transaction levels.

“However, it is also a signal that some of them will be willing to pay a bit more. This will give encouragement to many existing homeowners with borderline equity, but cause concern to a potential buyer hoping their own mortgage ability improves before any significant price uplift.”

Source: http://www.estateagencynews.co.uk/news/news-0909d.asp

NAEA report an upsurge in activity as four homehunters chase every property

THINGS are looking up — at least according to a survey of National Association of Estate Agents members who say there are grounds for optimism after the crippling slump in the market.

A third of agents who took part in the NAEA survey said they have seen around a 10 per cent increase in properties coming onto the market, compared to six months ago — and one in six agents reported an increase of up to 20 per cent.

Now, the Government needs to press the banks and building societies to do all they can to aid the recovery, according to NAEA president Gary Smith.

He said: “Since the beginning of the year, NAEA members have seen a significant increase in demand. There are clearly plenty of buyers out there, but the vast majority of those buyers also become sellers and up-to-date figures show that as the buyers decide on a property the supply of housing will increase.

“It is another positive indication that the UK housing market is over the worst and the NAEA calls on the Government to further badger banks and building societies to respond to the opportunity to pull the situation around.”

The NAEA’s latest monthly survey of their members showed that demand is outstripping supply across the UK housing market, with agents registering an average four househunters to every available property.

The survey found that the average branch had 299 househunters on its books in May – up from 265 the previous month and 247 in May 2008. The average branch had 69 properties on its books.

For the second month running estate agents also reported a successful selling period. The average branch sold 10 properties — a 30 per cent increase on the same time last year and double that sold on average in August 2008.

Mr Smith added: “This is really good news for the housing market and the UK economy in general.

“NAEA members are showing that there are buyers a-plenty out there. More often than not these are also potential sellers who are at the beginning of the process – so there is bound to be a lag which creates a shortage of properties in the short term.

“With mortgage interest rates at historically low levels and prices now far more realistic than in previous years, home ownership in the UK seems to be set to lead the way out of the recession.”

Source: http://www.estateagencynews.co.uk/news/news-0709a.asp

The number of home loans for house buyers rose by 4% in the month to 37,400, although that was still 28% lower than a year ago.

First-time buyers are still having to put down an average deposit worth 25% of their home’s value.

But the CML said 80% of first-time buyers under the age of 30 were receiving finance from their parents.

“The bank of mum and dad remains an apparently important source of help for young first-time buyers,” said CML economist Paul Samter.

“Some mortgage products specifically reflect this fact, and again we may begin to see more products that echo this phenomenon,” he added.

Rationing

The past year and a half has seen a dramatic rationing of mortgages by lenders, in response to the shortage of funds sparked by the banking crisis.

However, the CML predicted that lenders might become slightly more relaxed in the coming months.

“We might expect to see a modest easing over the summer, as some higher loan-to-value products came onto the market in recent months,” the CML said.

“Lenders reported that they intend to increase lending at higher loan-to-value ratios in the Bank of England’s recent Credit Conditions survey.”

Nearly three-quarters of all new mortgages are being taken out at fixed rates, the highest proportion since August 2007.

The CML said borrowers were protecting themselves against possible interest rate increases in the future.

With mortgage approvals still rising, the number of loans granted, and completed sales, are all likely to stay on their upward trend over the summer.

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8141886.stm

On that basis, prices were now 0.9% higher, the first time they have been on an upward trend since December 2007.

The building society said that if this pattern continued then this year would end with prices down by only “small single digits”.

“This would represent a stark shift from trends seen at the turn of the year, when most indicators were pointing to a repeat of the large declines seen in 2008,” it said.

Although there has been no let up in rationing of loans by mortgage lenders, the building society said potential sellers, and builders, were putting very few properties up for sale, which was bringing some equilibrium to prices.

But it warned against interpreting its latest data as the beginning of a sustained recovery in prices.

Abnormally low supply levels would not last for ever, it warned.

“[The] increase in the enquiry pipeline has not yet led to large increases in transaction volumes, because credit criteria remain significantly more restrictive than in the years leading up to the downturn,” said Mr Gahbauer.

“Rising unemployment and associated job insecurity are also limiting the extent to which enquiries can translate into actual transactions,” he added.

Upturn?

Last week, HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) reported that completed house sales in the UK had risen again in May, to their highest level since last October.

And on Monday, the Bank of England reported that the number of mortgages approved by lenders, but not yet lent, had risen for the fourth month in a row in May.

This suggests that the revival in buying and selling seen this spring may continue into the summer.

“Nationwide house price data provides further evidence that the residential property market appears to have found a floor, at least for the time being,” said Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.

House prices rose by 1.2% in May

Annual rate of decline improves sharply from -15.0% to -11.3%

Low supply levels may explain some of the improvement in price trends.

Commenting on the figures Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, said:

“Although the short-term trend in house prices has clearly improved from where it was at the beginning of the year, it is still too early to say that the market is turning definitively. During the downturn of the early 1990s, there were many months during which prices rose, only to fall back down again in subsequent periods. In the current downturn, the combination of rapidly rising unemployment and tight access to credit implies that the last of the price declines has probably not been seen yet. Nonetheless, the improvement in house price trends is consistent with signs of stabilisation in several other economic indicators and suggests that any further price declines may occur at a less rapid pace than in 2008. 

Surprise bounce to March house prices

* House prices increased by 0.9% in March

* House purchase activity reaches highest level since May 2008

* Welcome signals of market improvement but too early to talk of house price recovery

Headlines March 2009 February 2009

Monthly index * Q1 ‘93 = 100 301.5 298.7

Monthly change* 0.9% -1.9%

Annual change -15.7% -17.6%

Average price £150,946 £147,746

* seasonally adjusted

Commenting on the figures Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, said:

“Spring brought a surprise bounce to house prices in March. The price of a typical house increased for the first time since October 2007, rising by 0.9% during the month and reducing the annual rate of fall from -17.6% to -15.7%. This brings the price of a typical house to £150,946. The moderation in the annual rate of fall is somewhat distorted by conditions last year and so it would be unwise to draw strong conclusions from the significant slowdown in the annual rate of fall. Equally, while the rise in prices in March is welcome, it is far too soon to see this as evidence that the trough of the market has been reached. The Bank of England has already taken strong measures to ease the tensions in economic and financial markets by cutting rates and commencing quantitative easing. However it will take time for these to work through into the housing market before we can expect a sustained recovery in house prices.

Mortgage Approvals highest since May 2008

“Mortgage approvals have started to increase after reaching levels which were thought out of the question two years ago. February saw the number of monthly approvals increase to 37,900, its highest level since May 2008. This is still far below the long run average of the series which started in 1993 of 94,000 per month, but is a significant improvement on the average for the second half of 2008, which was only 32,000. The upturn is welcome and is certainly a signal that there is some movement in the market. The sales-to-stock ratio, which is a good indicator of movements in house prices, has begun to stabilise in 2009. However, it is still too soon to say that this will be the beginning of sustained house price rises and a reflection of a wholesale return of confidence to the market. The ratio remains at very low levels and house price expectations are still very weak. The current upturn in activity is therefore more likely to reflect the return of buyers who have delayed purchasing through the worst of the financial turbulence at the end of 2008 rather than the beginnings of a swift recovery. Nevertheless, the willingness of borrowers to return to the market is encouraging and likely to in part reflect the falling cost of borrowing.

Source:  http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/?source=nationwide&campaign=homepage&execution=hpi_lhs_01122008